No Permanent Arctic Ice Left After 2022
Harvard's James Anderson, 2018: Chance of Any Permanent Arctic Ice After 2022 'Is Essentially Zero'
At a University of Chicago talk, the atmospheric chemist said the floating multi-year ice would be gone after 2022. In 2023 the oldest Arctic ice still covered 36,000 square miles.
What was said
“The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero”
— James Anderson (atmospheric chemist, Harvard University) · said Jan 2018 · due After 2022
Permanent ice outlasted 2022. In 2023 the oldest Arctic sea ice (more than 4 years old) still covered 36,000 square miles, Forbes reported from satellite data - second-lowest on record, but not zero.
The fine print
Forbes added that '75 to 80 percent of permanent ice' had melted in the previous 35 years. Anderson later told the AP the claim referred to floating ice volume at the observed rate of loss: 'the current observed rate of floating ice loss volume, there will be no floating ice remaining by 2022.' He called the viral version - that humanity would be wiped out - 'a complete fabrication of what I said.'
Later spin
He told the AP he meant floating ice volume at the then-observed rate of loss, not Arctic ice in general.
Sources
- We Have Five Years To Save Ourselves From Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says - Jeff McMahon / Forbes (January 15, 2018)accessed 2026-10-09
- Arctic Sea Ice Resumes Its Slide - Forbes (October 12, 2023)accessed 2026-10-09
- Posts distort 2018 Greta Thunberg tweet on climate danger - AP Fact Checkaccessed 2026-10-09