The Asteroid That Scored a Four
Asteroid Apophis Peaked at a 2.7% Chance of Hitting Earth on April 13, 2029 — Torino Scale's All-Time High
Named for a chaos serpent and briefly rated Torino 4; a same-day precovery ruled out the 2029 impact, leaving only a close flyby.
What was claimed (paraphrase)
Impact probability for April 13, 2029 peaked at about 2.7% (1 in 37) on Dec. 27, 2004 — Torino scale 4 — before a precovery image the same day ruled out a 2029 impact.
— Early NASA Sentry/NEODyS odds and global press (Dec. 2004 Torino-4 scare) · said Dec 2004 · due Impact on April 13, 2029 (scare peak; later ruled out)
A 2029 Earth impact was ruled out on Dec. 27, 2004 once a March 2004 precovery extended the arc. Later keyhole/2036 scares were also eliminated; NASA removed Apophis from the Sentry Risk Table in 2021. The April 13, 2029 close flyby (~31,600 km) remains real — as a miss.
The Story
For one delicious afternoon in late December 2004, a rock named for a chaos serpent sat at Torino 4 — the highest hazard rating any near-Earth object has ever posted — with roughly a 1-in-37 shot at Earth on Friday the 13th of April, 2029. Then astronomers found an older photo. The impact corridor closed. The flyby still comes; the crater does not.
Receipts
One claim: 2029 impact scare at the Dec. 27 2004 peak. NASA JPL news page 403'd this session; Wikipedia's dated NASA/CNEOS history plus Sentry removed list used.
- 99942 Apophis — Wikipedia (NASA/CNEOS odds history, Torino 4 peak, precovery ruling)accessed 2026-10-24
- Removed Objects from Sentry Risk Table — NASA/JPL CNEOSaccessed 2026-10-24