World Oil Output Falls to 55 Million Barrels a Day by 2020
Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, 2006: World Oil Output Falls 'Roughly 32 Per Cent' to 55 Million Barrels a Day by 2020
A former senior expert at the National Iranian Oil Company told an Australian Senate inquiry that world oil had peaked in 2006 and that the decline was 'irreversible'.
What was said
“My WOCAP model has predicted that over the next 14 years present global production of 81 million barrels per day will decrease by roughly 32 per cent, down to around 55 million barrels per day by the year 2020.”
— Ali Samsam Bakhtiari (former senior expert, National Iranian Oil Company) · said Jul 2006 · due By the year 2020
Output rose instead. Even in the pandemic year 2020, world oil and liquids supply averaged about 94.2 million barrels a day (EIA), far above 55 million.
The fine print
He also told the Senate: 'The decline of global oil production seems now irreversible. It is bound to occur over a number of transitions, the first of which I have called transition 1, which has just begun in 2006.' In 2007 he wrote that the four transitions 'will roughly span the 2006-2020 era.' He warned of 'inevitable shockwaves.' EIA's 2020 figure covers all petroleum and other liquids; his 81 mb/d starting point was also a broad production figure. Bakhtiari died in 2010.
Sources
- Bakhtiari addresses the Australian Senate Committee - Resilience (July 26, 2006), excerpts from Senate Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport Committee hearingaccessed 2026-10-09
- Ali Samsam Bakhtiari and peak oil - Resilience (April 25, 2007)accessed 2026-10-09
- Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2021 (Table 3a: total world supply, 2020: 94.23 million b/d) - U.S. Energy Information Administrationaccessed 2026-10-09