US Recession Odds Hit 100%
Recession Odds Hit 100%, Says Bloomberg Model. The Recession Didn't Get the Memo.
In October 2022 Bloomberg Economics' model put the chance of a US recession within 12 months at 100%. By October 2023 the economy was still growing.
What was claimed (paraphrase)
There's a 100% chance the US economy will tip into a recession within 12 months, a statistical analysis by Bloomberg Economics has found. (Markets Insider's report of the model.)
— Bloomberg Economics (recession-probability model, as reported by Bloomberg and Markets Insider) · said Oct 17, 2022 · due by October 2023 (within 12 months)
No recession came within the 12 months. Investopedia suggested 2023 may be remembered as 'the year of the recession that never came.'
Then vs Now
Promised: 100% chance of a US recession within 12 months (by October 2023)
US Real GDP annual growth in 2023 (as of 2023)
The fine print
Published by Bloomberg on October 17, 2022 under the headline 'Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden Before Midterms'. Markets Insider summarised: 'It's almost a sure thing that a sustained and severe slowdown will hit the US by October 2023.' The model's previous reading was 65%.