The Quake That Closed the Schools
Iben Browning Gave New Madrid Roughly 50-50 Quake Odds for Dec. 3, 1990 — and Closed Midwest Schools
A self-taught climatologist sold tidal forces as the trigger; USGS reviewers said the method was no better than a dartboard.
What was said
“December 3, 1990, at thirty degrees north latitude, there will be the highest tidal force in twenty-seven years. . . . We are back in the same triggeringforce configuration as of December 3rd next year as we were when the great New Madrid earthquake went off. Will it go off?”
— Iben Browning (climatologist / business consultant), amplified by David Stewart and Midwest media · said Dec 1989 · due On or about December 3, 1990 (± tidal window)
No major New Madrid quake. New Yorker: 'On Monday, December 3, 1990, there was no earthquake.' USGS panel: methods no better than throwing darts at a calendar.
The Story
Iben Browning did not invent the New Madrid fault. He did invent a calendar appointment for it. After he told an agriculture conference that Dec. 3, 1990 would bring the highest tidal force in decades — and asked whether the gun was loaded — David Stewart's Center for Earthquake Studies helpfully translated the vibes into a roughly 50 percent chance for the Midwest.
Schools closed. Insurers cashed in. A USGS panel checked the method and said you could do as well with darts. Dec. 3 arrived under cloudy skies. No quake came.
Receipts
Quote from Browning's Dec. 1989 Missouri Governor's Conference on Agriculture speech tape, as reprinted in Hubbell. Hubbell also reports Stewart's ~50% New Madrid memo. Separate economic claim already lives as browning-depression-1992.
As of Oct 25, 2026
since it didn't happen
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