Half of America's Colleges Bankrupt Within 10 to 15 Years
Clayton Christensen, 2011: Half of America's 4,000 Colleges 'Will Be Bankrupt in 10 to 15 Years'
The Harvard Business School professor known for 'disruptive innovation' said online learning would bankrupt half of U.S. higher education. He repeated it in 2017.
What was said
“50 percent of the 4,000 colleges and universities in the U.S. will be bankrupt in 10 to 15 years.”
— Clayton M. Christensen (professor, Harvard Business School) · said 2011 · due 10 to 15 years from 2011 (2021-2026)
The fine print
The window closes at the end of 2026. Higher Education Today in 2019: 'Here we are in 2019, the midpoint of Christensen's 2011 prediction that half of U.S. colleges and universities will close by 2026. Yet, in fact, according to the Department of Education, there are 30 more nonprofit institutions today than there were nine years ago.' Christensen repeated the forecast in 2017 (CNBC), which would push its window to 2032. He died in January 2020.