Industrial Civilization Ends by 2030
Olduvai Theory: Industrial Civilization Has a Shelf Life, and It Expires in 2030
Richard Duncan gave industrial civilization 100 years or less: 1930 to 2030. His first milestone, worldwide permanent blackouts around 2012, is already in the graveyard.
What was said
“It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030.”
— Richard C. Duncan, engineer and author of the Olduvai theory (Geological Society of America Summit 2000) · said Nov 13, 2000 · due 2030
Verdict due in 2030. The scheduled 2012 blackouts that were meant to start the slide did not show up.
The fine print
His theory measures industrial civilization by world energy production per person and says it 'will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years'. Timeline item: '2030 => Industrial Civilization ends'. A later Social Contract article restated that 'the terminal decline of industrial civilization will begin circa 2008-2012.'
As of Oct 9, 2026
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