'England Will Not Exist in the Year 2000'
Ehrlich Would 'Take Even Money That England Will Not Exist in the Year 2000.' England Took the Bet.
In 1971 the Population Bomb author told British biologists the UK would be 'a small group of impoverished islands' of 70 million hungry people by 2000.
What was said
“By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”
— Paul R. Ehrlich, Stanford biologist (speech to the Institute of Biology, UK) · said Sep 1971 · due the year 2000
England existed in the year 2000, and the UK was not a cluster of impoverished, hungry islands. The even-money bet would have lost.
The fine print
Reason and Fox date the speech to the Institute of Biology in September 1971. The BBC's More or Less says he was 'reported as saying' it in 1968, so the exact date is disputed; the wording is the same. See also his 1968 Population Bomb entry.
Later spin
Ehrlich told Fox News in 2010: 'When you predict the future, you get things wrong... I would have lost if I had had taken the bet. However, if you look closely at England... They're having all kinds of problems...'
Sources
- Cracked Crystal Ball: Environmentalist Failed Predictions - Reason (December 30, 2010)accessed 2026-09-29
- Eight Botched Environmental Forecasts - Fox Newsaccessed 2026-09-29
- Paul R. Ehrlich - Wikipediaaccessed 2026-09-29
- More or Less - BBCaccessed 2026-09-29
As of Oct 9, 2026
since it didn't happen
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