A Genuine Age of Scarcity Before 1985
Paul and Anne Ehrlich, 1974: 'Before 1985 Mankind Will Enter a Genuine Age of Scarcity'
In The End of Affluence the Ehrlichs said key minerals would be nearing depletion within a decade. Julian Simon's 1980 wager on five metals became the famous test.
What was said
“Before 1985 mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity”
— Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich (Stanford biologists; authors of The End of Affluence) · said 1974 · due Before 1985
No age of scarcity arrived. Known reserves grew, and in the 1980-1990 Simon-Ehrlich wager the inflation-adjusted prices of all five metals fell.
The Story
Wired quotes more of the passage: 'Before 1985 mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity' in which 'the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be nearing depletion.' Econlib: 'Notably, this age of scarcity never arrived.'
On the wager: 'the inflation-adjusted prices of all five minerals fell: copper by 18 percent, chrome by 40 percent, nickel by 3 percent, tin by 72 percent, and tungsten by 57 percent.' Other Ehrlich entries: ehrlich-starving-1980, ehrlich-england-2000, ehrlich-sea-life-1980, population-bomb-1970s.
Receipts
- Julian Simon - Econlib (Concise Encyclopedia of Economics)accessed 2026-10-09
- The Doomslayer - Wired (February 1997)accessed 2026-10-09
As of Oct 9, 2026
since it didn't happen
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