'Countdown to an Ice-Free Arctic': First Ice-Free Day as Early as 2027
University Starts 'Countdown to an Ice-Free Arctic'; Earliest Date on the Clock: 2027
CU Boulder's press office started a 'Countdown to an Ice-Free Arctic'. First line: the ice could be practically gone 'as early as 2027'.
What was said
“The first summer on record that melts practically all of the Arctic’s sea ice, an ominous milestone for the planet, could occur as early as 2027.”
— University of Colorado Boulder press release (CU Boulder Today), on research by Alexandra Jahn and Céline Heuzé · said Dec 3, 2024 · due as early as 2027
The countdown the press release started runs out at the end of 2027. The 2026 minimum was 4.60 million km², so 2027 would need a very dramatic summer.
The fine print
The opening line of CU Boulder's release of December 3, 2024, headlined 'Countdown to an ice-free Arctic: New research warns of accelerated timelines'. Further down, the release said most models put the first ice-free day nine to 20 years after 2023, and that the earliest could come 'within three years'. Jahn presented the results at the American Geophysical Union meeting on December 9, 2024. NSIDC put the 2026 minimum extent at 4.60 million km².