Almost Certain Ecocide by Century's End
Holdren and Ehrlich, 1971: Some Form of Ecocatastrophe Seems 'Almost Certain' Before 2000
Global Ecology sold a near-sure ecological wipeout before century's end; population, life expectancy, and food supply all rose instead.
What was said
“some form of ecocatastrophe, if not thermonuclear war, seems almost certain to overtake us before the end of the century”
— John P. Holdren and Paul R. Ehrlich (Global Ecology, 1971) · said 1971 · due Before the end of the century (by 2000)
No ecocatastrophe overtook civilization before 2000. Human population, life expectancy, and food supply all rose across the window they called almost certain doom.
The Story
'Almost certain' is a hell of a confidence interval for the apocalypse. Holdren and Ehrlich put ecocatastrophe — war optional — on the calendar before the century's end. One of them later advised a White House. The century ended on schedule. Ecocide missed the meeting.
Receipts
CEI WebMemo quotes Global Ecology (Holdren & Ehrlich eds., 1971) p. 279 for the ecocatastrophe line. Scored on that dated 'almost certain' claim, not later climate work.
As of Oct 25, 2026
since it didn't happen
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