Himalayan Glaciers Gone by 2035
IPCC: Himalayan Glaciers Could Be Gone 'by the Year 2035 and Perhaps Sooner'. Likelihood: 'Very High'
The UN climate panel's 2007 report rated the chance of the Himalaya losing its glaciers by 2035 as very high. Three years later the panel said it regretted the line.
What was said
“Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate.”
— Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II (chapter 10, Asia) · said 2007 · due by the year 2035
The report's own date: 2035, 'and perhaps sooner'. The glaciers are still there. Verdict due in 2035.
The Story
Section 10.6.2 of the 2007 Working Group II report. The forecast is conditional on the current rate continuing, but it rates the likelihood 'very high', a firm call rather than a hedge.
On January 20, 2010 the IPCC's chair, vice-chairs and co-chairs said 'the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures, were not applied properly' and that they 'regret the poor application of well-established IPCC procedures in this instance.'
The panel did not withdraw its wider finding that glaciers are losing mass.
Later spin
It has, however, recently come to our attention that a paragraph in the 938-page Working Group II contribution to the underlying assessment refers to poorly substantiated estimates of rate of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers. (IPCC statement, January 20, 2010.)
Receipts
- IPCC AR4 WG2 Chapter 10: Asia (2007), section 10.6.2accessed 2026-09-29
- UN climate body admits 'mistake' on Himalayan glaciers - The Guardian (January 20, 2010)accessed 2026-09-29
- IPCC statement on the melting of Himalayan glaciers (January 20, 2010)accessed 2026-10-09
As of Oct 9, 2026
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