Arctic Summers Ice-Free by 2013
BBC: 'Arctic Summers Ice-Free by 2013.' Modeller Calls His Own Date 'Too Conservative.'
A US Navy modeller told the BBC in 2007 that summer sea ice could be gone by 2013, maybe sooner. Summer 2013 ended with more ice than the year before.
What was said
“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007. So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
— Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski, US Naval Postgraduate School (speaking to BBC News) · said Dec 12, 2007 · due summer 2013
The Arctic kept its summer ice in 2013, and more of it than in the record-low summer of 2012. Too conservative it was not.
The fine print
Said at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in San Francisco and headlined by the BBC as 'Arctic summers ice-free "by 2013"'. The BBC noted his group was 'well known for producing modelled dates that are in advance of other teams'. Al Gore later cited this modelling in his own 2009 claim, which has its own entry.
Later spin
The date was later revised to 2016, plus or minus three years (Wikipedia).
Sources
- Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013' - BBC News (December 12, 2007)accessed 2026-09-29
- Wiesław Masłowski - Wikipediaaccessed 2026-09-29
As of Oct 9, 2026
since it didn't happen
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