America in Six Pieces by Mid-2010
Russian Professor Gave U.S. a 55-45 Chance of Splitting Into Six Pieces by Mid-2010
Igor Panarin told the Wall Street Journal mass immigration, moral decline, and a dollar crash would trigger civil war and a six-way breakup around June–July 2010.
What was said
“There's a 55–45% chance right now that disintegration will occur.”
— Igor Panarin (Russian political scientist / Diplomatic Academy) · said Dec 2008 · due Around end of June / early July 2010 (by 2010)
No civil war, no six rump states, no Alaska hand-back. The mid-2010 map looked like the 2009 map.
The Story
In late 2008 a Russian Diplomatic Academy professor found a Western microphone. Igor Panarin told the Wall Street Journal the odds were 55–45 that the United States would come apart — civil war next fall, six pieces by about June or July 2010, Alaska sliding back toward Moscow.
State television liked the map. So did the anti-American storyline already in circulation. Panarin had been selling the breakup thesis since the late 1990s; the financial crisis made editors return his calls.
Mid-2010 arrived on schedule. The fifty states did not. No martial-law curtain call, no Alaska transfer, no six-way rump republic. The forecast had better ratings than a track record.
Receipts
CRC reprints the WSJ Dec. 29, 2008 interview (Andrew Osborn): 55–45% chance of disintegration; mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation trigger civil war; U.S. breaks into six pieces around end of June / early July 2010, Alaska reverting to Russian control.
Fox/AP March 2009: 'There is a high probability that the collapse of the United States will occur by 2010.' WSJ paywall limited this session; CRC and Fox carry the quoted lines.
As of Oct 25, 2026
since it didn't happen
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