Kuwait Oil Fires Bring a Year Without a Summer
Carl Sagan, 1991: Burning Kuwaiti Oil Wells Will Be Like Tambora and 'the Year Without a Summer'
On Nightline the night the first wells were lit, Sagan compared the smoke to the 1815 eruption that cooled 1816 and warned the Asian monsoon could fail. The monsoon arrived on schedule.
What was said
“We think the net effects will be very similar to the explosion of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815, which resulted in the year 1816 being known as the year without a summer”
— Carl Sagan (astronomer, Cornell University) · said Jan 22, 1991 · due 1991
The smoke mostly stayed low. Kuwait and Bahrain had cold spells, but 'the monsoons did not disappear', and a year later researchers concluded that 'in one way or another, everyone was wrong.'
The fine print
Said on ABC's Nightline on January 22, 1991, when the first Kuwaiti wells were set alight. Sagan continued: 'There were massive agricultural failures in North America and in western Europe... Especially for South Asia, that seems to be in the cards, and perhaps for a significant fraction of the Northern Hemisphere as well.' A week later he and Richard Turco wrote in the Los Angeles Times that the pall might cover '20% to 40% of the Northern Hemisphere' and that 'Spring and summer frosts could be expected.' Turco later said: 'it seems as if all the contingencies get dropped out, and you get saddled with one prediction.' The last fire was put out on November 6, 1991. Nuclear-era forecasts: jensen-nuclear-1980.
Sources
- Ecowar - Carl Zimmer (Discover, early 1992)accessed 2026-10-09
- A Weapon Beyond Control - Carl Sagan and Richard Turco, Los Angeles Times (January 30, 1991)accessed 2026-10-09
As of Oct 9, 2026
since it didn't happen
Put this counter on your site →