Peter Schiff's 2024 Recession Crash
Peter Schiff Said 2024's 'Big Surprise' Would Be a Recession Crash; Real GDP Grew 2.8% Instead
On Dec. 27, 2023 he said the year's surprise would be the economy crashing into recession with inflation returning 'with a vengeance.' Real GDP rose 2.8%; NBER logged no new recession.
What was said
“The big surprise in 2024 will not only be that the economy crashes into recession, but that high inflation returns with a vengeance.”
— Peter Schiff (economist / Euro Pacific Capital) · said Dec 27, 2023 · due 2024
Real GDP rose 2.8% in 2024. NBER's chronology still ends the last US recession in April 2020.
The Story
On December 27, 2023, Peter Schiff told his followers the soft-landing story was wrong.
'Investors are convinced the Fed has succeeded in restoring price stability without causing a recession, pulling off a miraculous soft landing,' he wrote on X. 'The big surprise in 2024 will not only be that the economy crashes into recession, but that high inflation returns with a vengeance.'
Benzinga carried the post the same day. The claim was not hedged: crash into recession, inflation back with a vengeance, both in 2024.
The Year
The year closed without an NBER recession. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's third estimate put 2024 real GDP up 2.8% from 2023. The last peak and trough on the NBER chronology remain February and April 2020.
Inflation's promised vengeance stayed out of the annual accounts. The soft landing Schiff said would not happen was the one that showed up in the numbers.
Receipts
Quote from Schiff's Dec. 27, 2023 X post as reprinted in full by Benzinga the same day. Outcome: BEA third estimate for year 2024 (real GDP +2.8%), released March 27, 2025; NBER business-cycle chronology (most recent trough April 2020), accessed Oct. 24, 2026.
- Peter Schiff Challenges Prevailing Economic Optimism With 2024 Recession Forecast - Benzinga, Dec. 27, 2023 (quotes his X post)accessed 2026-10-24
- Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate) - BEA, March 27, 2025accessed 2026-10-24
- Business Cycle Dating - NBER (most recent trough April 2020)accessed 2026-10-24
See also
- Bloomberg Model Put US Recession Odds at 100%. Twelve Months Later, GDP Was Still Growing
- 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini, September 2022: 'It's Going to Be Severe, Long, and Ugly'
- Deutsche Bank, April 2022: 'We Will Get a Major Recession' - Weeks After Calling for a Mild One
- Economist Steve Hanke, August 2022: 'We're Going to Have One Whopper of a Recession in 2023'
- Stanley Druckenmiller, September 2022: 'I Will Be Stunned If We Don't Have a Recession in '23'
- The Conference Board Forecasts a 'Recession Starting in Mid-2023'; the NBER Records No Recession
As of Oct 25, 2026
since it didn't happen
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