The $200 Oil Bet
Simmons Bet Oil Would Average $200 a Barrel in 2010. It Averaged About $80
After Twilight in the Desert, the peak-oil banker wagered John Tierney $5,000 that 2010's inflation-adjusted average would clear $200. His estate paid out.
What was said
“He offered to bet $5,000 that the average price of oil over the course of 2010 would be at least $200 a barrel in 2005 dollars.”
— Matthew R. Simmons (peak-oil banker; Twilight in the Desert) · said Aug 2005 · due Average oil price for calendar 2010
2010 averaged just under $80 a barrel — about $71 in 2005 dollars — far below the $200 line. Tierney and Rita Simon collected.
The Story
Matthew Simmons had written Twilight in the Desert and told the New York Times Magazine oil was headed for triple digits that were not the low kind. John Tierney offered a Julian Simon-style wager. Simmons took it: $5,000 that the inflation-adjusted average price for all of 2010 would be at least $200 a barrel.
Oil did spike — $145 in 2008 — then fell hard. Simmons, asked late in 2008 if he had second thoughts, said they had bet the 2010 average, 'an eternity from now.'
Eternity arrived at just under $80, roughly $71 in 2005 dollars. The estate settled. Peak-oil sermons continued; the price line did not.
Receipts
Quote is Tierney's 2010 NYT recounting of the Aug. 2005 wager terms after the Breaking Point magazine piece. Same article: 2010 average just under $80 (~$71 in 2005 dollars); Simmons died Aug. 2010; colleagues paid the $5,000. Wikipedia confirms escrow terms and settlement.
- Economic Optimism? Yes, I'll Take That Bet — John Tierney, New York Times (Dec. 27/28, 2010)accessed 2026-10-24
- Simmons–Tierney bet — Wikipediaaccessed 2026-10-24
See also
- Limits to Growth's Table 4 Put Known 1972 Oil Reserves on a ~20-Year Exponential Clock Ending Around 1992
- Princeton Geologist Named Thanksgiving Day 2005 'World Oil Peak Day.' Output Kept Climbing for Years
- T. Boone Pickens to the Senate, 2008: World Oil Has 'Peaked Out at 85 Million Barrels a Day.' It Hit 100
As of Oct 25, 2026
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