The European Union Collapses by 2020 - or Sooner
Mark Steyn, 2006: A Forecast That 'the EU Will Collapse by 2020' Is 'a Rather Cautious Estimate'
In his bestseller America Alone, the columnist predicted the EU's 'internal contradictions' would surface within a couple of election cycles. Economist Bryan Caplan bet him $100 and won.
What was said
“The U.S. government's National Intelligence Council is predicting that the EU will collapse by 2020. I think that's a rather cautious estimate myself.”
— Mark Steyn (columnist; author of America Alone: The End of the World As We Know It) · said Oct 2006 · due By 2020 (the 'cautious' end of his range)
The EU did not collapse. No large member had officially left by January 1, 2020, so Steyn lost the bet. The UK left on January 31, 2020, and the EU carried on with 27 members.
The fine print
The passage continues: 'Ever since September 11, I've been gloomily predicting that within the next couple of election cycles the internal contradictions of the EU will manifest themselves in the usual way.' Caplan's bet terms: 'If any current EU member with a population over 10 million people in 2007 officially withdraws from the EU before January 1, 2020, I will pay you $100.' Steyn accepted. Caplan, January 1, 2020: 'Steyn's original claim was not remotely close to true. The EU didn't "collapse" by 2020, the year Steyn described as "cautious."' He conceded he had been lucky on Brexit's timing.
Later spin
After the 2016 Brexit referendum, Steyn declared he had won the bet (Caplan).
Sources
- I Win My EU Bet - Bryan Caplan, EconLog (January 1, 2020)accessed 2026-10-09
- Euro Bet II: Win Mark Steyn's Money - Bryan Caplan, EconLog (April 26, 2008)accessed 2026-10-09