Arctic Nearly Ice-Free by the End of Summer 2012
NASA Scientist: Arctic 'Could Be Nearly Ice-Free' Within Five Summers. Summer Five: 3.41 Million km² of Ice
After the record 2007 melt, Jay Zwally said: 'At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012.' The 2012 low was a record, and a long way from zero.
What was said
“At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
— Jay Zwally, NASA climate scientist (Associated Press interview) · said Dec 2007 · due End of summer 2012 (the September minimum)
September 2012 did set a record low, 3.41 million square kilometres on September 16. That is a lot of ice for 'nearly ice-free'.
Then vs Now
Promised: the Arctic Ocean 'nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012'
The 2012 summer minimum was a record low, and still 3.41 million square kilometres of sea ice (as of 2012-09-16)
The Story
The Associated Press story of December 12-13, 2007 quoted Zwally 'after reviewing his own new data'. The AP headline promoted it as 'summer sea ice could be gone in five years'. Hedges at the time: 'At this rate' and 'could'.
Outcome: NSIDC reported the 2012 seasonal minimum, reached September 16, 2012, as 3.41 million square kilometers (1.32 million square miles), the lowest in the satellite record. Other Arctic deadlines on file: maslowski-arctic-2013, gore-arctic-2014, wadhams-arctic-2016.